Thursday, August 19, 2021

 

Washingtonian Republic, not a Jeffersonian Democracy

 

 

For those of us veterans who see the invisible and visible power of the military as a blessing and a course depending on the form it takes in the geography of the world—is the reason for our failure in Afghanistan’s nation building effort.

In Afghanistan soldiers were asked to fight for corrupt clique of politician at the helm of the government while senior officers pocketed part or all the salaries sent by the Western Nations to pay for the standing troops.

Having elections in a country that has been ruled during centuries by brutes makes no sense for nation building effort for it is only the illusion of civilization by propping up corrupt leaders in a country that in all of its eons of conquering empires still does not know what toilet paper is for.

 

Under these circumstances, building a well-organized military is easier than building a civilized society with western values. This provides the invisible and the visible power of a well discipline army loyal to western values and spirt de corps to build a civilized society. A new nation whose soldiers are willing to die defending freedom and liberties for their daughters, wives, mothers, sisters and other female members of their country; gives a discipline foot soldier coming from a ragtag organization a reason to buy a stake in a new nation ready to give his life for the values of the team.

 

George Washington presided over the first Continental Army and Congress with success because he had the visible and invisible power of the Army and the loyalty of the troops to bring about order if necessary. Therefore, the conflict of ideas among its founding members was reduced to arguments and shouts but aware of the policing power that Washington wielded.

 

Once an agreement was reached for a new Constitutional government the first President served with the power of humility as the model to follow and step down to return his power to the sovereign. Because human life has a natural span institutions must be built to replace the original ideals stated in laws and yield those powers in a peaceful transfer of the Executive and representative and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces.

Oliver Cromwell in England had a similar inspiration in the 16th Century and going back in history other idealist like Alexander the Great exercised humbleness at the pinnacle of his power.

Although the American Constitution is the first document detailing the structure of the government into three separate but equal powers in order to write, execute and interpret the wishes of the sovereign; other republican ideals were manifested in history by the ancient Greeks and later the Romans with a representative of the people Senate.

 

The American Constitution is supposed to be a living document that can be amended and modified in parallel with the evolution of the society and in the states that formed the unified Republic. The document manifests understanding of common values in the midst of disparities of opinions and believes among the citizens becomes the rule of the land.

Nevertheless, this agreed union for the common good came close to disintegration during the reckless and criminal conduct of the Trump administration. His destructive conduct reached an apex on January 6th 2021 with his attempt to overthrow the Constitutional Government and replace it with an autocratic system.

Here again the silent invisible and visible power of the military came to the rescue of the Republic to restore order without firing a shot.

As long as the spirit of George Washington lives on all future Commanders in Chief willing to follow the law and step down in a peaceful transfer of power the Republic will be safe from autocratic rule. Moreover, Western Nations should consider this queue when trying to build a new nation with the inspiration to follow the rule of law.

Tuesday, February 4, 2020


TRANSPORTATION DATA IN A FRACTAL DOMAIN
ABSTRACT
In following with previous papers about international trade technology and transportation, this paper will focus on the challenging issues posed by an overlay of surface topology on transportation traffic in the context of the geography of nations. But, is not only traffic and infrastructure where roads and rail exist but how these Euclidian spaces affect cost. Here is where this paper introduces the theory of applying fractal properties to distances and geographic forms and how mapping of surfaces can be simplified by combining geometric properties with fractal properties over a geographic overlay.

Introduction
One telling advantage of fractals in this context is the property to increase the diameter of a surface without increasing its area. This very property could be use to describe irregular geographic surfaces of nations that can be turned into regular polygons with known properties in Euclidian surfaces and be able to measure variables and collect them in a linear algebra matrix in loadings of: Direction, distance, volume, cost, and so on.
Topology of a surface can be illustrated and understood in the area of a sphere as stated by: http://mathcentral.uregina.ca/index.php
“…In a surface of a sphere of radius R inside a cylinder, with the cylinder just touching the equator, and cut off at the height of the top and bottom of the sphere.

The polygon area of the curved part of the cylinder is 2 Pi R x 2R = 4 Pi R2. This is found by slicing the cylinder surface and rolling it out as a rectangle. It is no accident that the cylinder surface is exactly the area of the sphere”.


Surface Analysis of Special Polygons

After establishing the geometry between a sphere and a cylinder this paper will now introduce a common surface--the ellipse to introduce the theory of transportation in a fractal domain. However, this is an ellipse formed by two intersecting circles of equal diameter where geometric distances can be defined and circle centers are mutually shared.




This is the junction where the intersecting Euclidian geometry, topology and fractal geometry are mapped and the properties of this new space are used to expand the idea of transportation geography in a fractal domain. As an example to this idea we’ll use the borderline of France to illustrate its topological and fractal geometrical transformation into a Euclidian space.



This outline of the borderline is a fractal surface. It follows that if this figure is cut and stretched into a string-line to form a new figure in a Euclidian space we can then use plane geometry and its properties. An ellipsis formed by two equal circles overlapping their centers has unique properties.
            Geography of France     Area 643,801 km²        
              Coastline     3,427 km
              Borders        4,176 km 
                   Total Borderline Perimeter 7,603 km




This outline of the borderline is a fractal surface. It follows that if this figure is cut and stretched into a string-line to form a new figure in a Euclidian space we can then use plane geometry and its properties. An ellipsis formed by two equal circles overlapping their centers has unique properties.

Polygon Properties Citations

1.- The topology of two equal spaces is homomorphic. Each circumference of the elliptical surface =3801.5 km.
2.- A country’s area measured by length and width provides a major and a minor axis of distance that can be described by the resulting geometry of the intercepted circles.
3.- The effect of distance on rates is inversely proportional to freight cost because cost is spread over a shorter or longer distance within or between countries.
4.-Cross border rates change at the tangent line of two countries to obtain a between countries rate. At these crossings independent matrices of distance, commodity, handling, weight-volume and a city origin-destination can be developed to reflect freight differentials due to infrastructure and other factors.
5.-Each matrix of (data) n x m (measurements) has an SVD or PCA which can be used to determine the aggregate of the most influential data points. A cross border price is generated and related to each country’s internal economic performance such as GDP, current account balance, GDP/ Debt ratio, inflation rates, interest rates, budget balance and currency exchange.


              


Argument for the Proposed Theory
In a generic (n x m) matrix any set of (n)  items chosen with (m) measurements can be used for decomposing the matrix and calculating the SVD based bythe following equations:
C = UΣV  followed by  CᵀC = VΣᵀΣVᵀ and CV = UΣ

Where U and V are orthogonal matrices and Σ is a diagonal matrix with corresponding eigenvalues and eigenvectors.
But to state the argument in context we need to revisit the issue of fractal transformations. For instance: squares  can be used to generate fractal polygons with a similarity to the coast of France. Adding a unit square to each side respectively a square with dimension one third of the squares results from the previous iteration and both the length of the perimeter and the total area are determined by a geometric progression. Example for this case:


  





G
 This area converges to 2 while the progression for the perimeter diverges to infinity, as is the case for the Koch snowflake, where a finite area is bounded by an infinite fractal polygon.  The resulting area fills a square with the same center as the original, but twice the area, and rotated by π/4 radians, the perimeter touching but never overlapping itself.


Another iteration that can be shown with a couple lines of a programming loop in Matlab is:   =
   = [1 2 3 4 5 6];
for i = 1:length( )
       disp( (i))
end

Description of the Polygons Referenced

1.-  The circumference of circle of radius one = 3.14 which means that a unit Vesica Piscis is formed by two half circumferences of 1.57x 2= 3.14 or two half circles areas A=πr²/2.
                                                       
2.- The Sum of the sides of a square inscribed in circle of area 3.14 = a diameter of   {\displaystyle A_{n}={\frac {1}{5}}+{\frac {4}{5}}\sum _{k=0}^{n}\left({\frac {5}{9}}\right)^{k}\quad {\mbox{giving}}\quad \lim _{n\rightarrow \infty }A_{n}=2\,,}=1.41 x 4= 5.65 which is a ratio of circle to square 6.32/5.65=1.12 to infinity.

3.- Euclid defined the equilateral triangle inscribed in the Vesica Piscis using the properties of this polygon. More recent names include the Reuleaux triangles and the Euler spherical triangles which include the chords of a circle.
                                                                           
           
4.- Also defined by the two circles is a triangle with sides 2 and 3 and a hypotenuse of C²=13. A triangle with concurrent points is also derived.
5.- The argument made is that maximum and minimum distances within a country can be defined with these polygons inside and outside the Vesica Piscis.



Topological and Fractal Geometry and the Transformation Matrix.
In this context n values used for a within commerce matrix can be defined for each country’s boundaries, distances, economy and financials. At the same time, m values can be used for measures of commodities traded, volume, price and origin-destination with a daily or any other number of n samples and m measurement for each point of the data matrix in multiple dimensions.
What the mathematical tools of SVD and PCA allow us to do is process large amounts of data in multidimensional space and to reduce its dimensionality to a more manageable space in order to discover its data pattern and correlation using the Eigen decomposition of the covariance matrix.
Here is an exercised published by MIT

 MIT Paper Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) BE.400 / 7.548




Closing Remarks
To summarize the ideas presented herein are based on a geographical boundary of fractal space which is then transformed to a Euclidian space of known quantities. An unique data matrix for any country can be used to measure international trade with as many data points and measurements as needed which is then decomposed by its SVD of (3 matrices to obtain a sigma diagonal matrix) which provides principal values in its diagonal responsible for the most variation of the variance matrix entered in the initial set up matrix. It follows that any matrix of any dimensional size can be decomposed into its SVD components.
Needless to say the SVD is a powerful mathematical tool to assess the prominent number of factors that have the most relevance in commerce within a country and of trade between countries. Furthermore, the SVD result can be used by a national government as indicator of inefficiencies in both its financial or commercial markets and take corrective action.



Saturday, August 17, 2019


How are the Feds Coping with Inflationary Pressures?

The short answer is on how inflation is measured and what components of the economy are used. The Feds rely on the Consumer Price Index (basket of goods and services CPI) and its components are used to fine-tune other economic series for price changes and interpretation of these indicators into inflation-free dollars. The resulting blend of indicators renders the purchasing power of a consumer's dollar measured against the exchange in value of goods and services that a given dollar will buy at a given calendar time.
Episodes of high inflation can often be attributed to lax monetary policy. If the money supply grows too big relative to the size of an economy, the unit value of the currency diminishes. There is agreement among many economists about the proportionality distribution between excess currency circulation and prices. This relationship between money supply and the size of the economy is known as the quantity theory of money, and is one of the oldest hypotheses in economics.
Central banks use a target inflation rate to modulate economic growth, money supply and consumption but if inflation gets out of hand it could mean that the target inflation is not under control or that the commitment to a target is not strong enough for political reasons.
The world in general and in the US in particular, have enjoyed low inflation and abundance of goods to choose from for an extended period of time which, can be explained by a combination of sound economic policies and technological change. Technology has also increased productivity, thereby reducing the costs of inputs to a unit of production. Most economies have now flattened productivity gains, nonetheless, inflation is still low?
Analysts are studying and trying to explain a new wave of productivity based on a “shared economy” mainly, based on the effects of international trade and the expansion of other means of production. Some of this added productivity is coming from resources that used to be idle but are now participating in economic growth. A good example of the share economic expansion is Uber’s-- car sharing and Airbnb's--home sharing economic models.
Additionally, as the world’s population gets older, another component of change must be included with its impact on changing demographics and how it can exert inflationary pressure in the short and long run. Finally, the effect of globalization is changing traditional economic statistical metrics to include new methods to asses its effects on share economies.
The extended period of low inflation and interest rates is nearing its end as the accumulated effects of the economic variables suggest that expectations in the financial and commodity markets will translate to changes in price levels in the larger economy.
The shift is mostly driven by an increase in investors’ expectations for future inflation. In the United States, prices of inflation-protected bonds imply that investors currently expect consumer prices to rise and the Trump administration policies may be playing a role.
Largess in tax cuts and increased spending will result in hundreds of billions of dollars more in Treasury bonds being issued in the coming years which mean the government will have to pay higher interest rates to find buyers of that debt. As a result, the Feds are facing economic realities unrelated to politics and must apply the traditional equation of [New Debt-Maturing Debt = Primary Deficit + Interest Payments]. In other words, the government must issue new debt to cover the primary deficit which is-- the difference between non-interest spending and revenues—the principal on debt, and interest payments on past debt.
This economic reality is inescapable no matter how Trump massages his economic policies and his rosy scenario messaging to the public.