Saturday, September 30, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, studied at Florida International University
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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, studied at Florida International University
Evaluation of Trobe University graduate studies has to be subjective as it would be for any other institution of higher learning. Therefore, the question must be interpreted as being loaded.
A Recent term making the sociological rounds the world over is the term “precariat” which describes the world phenomenon of discontent, despair and search for meaning. In America, Trump tapped into this disruption of the social fabric either accidentally or by feeling the same frustration himself; although, at a different level of the social pyramid but with the same fear and anxiety of going bankrupt and finding meaning to his existence for being a rich playboy getting old and frail. Precariat is the new portmanteau coined by sociologist merging precarious with proletariat.
In past-contemporary English dictionary, a portmanteau was a suitcase that opened into two equal sections. The etymology of the word is the French porte-manteau, from porter, "to carry", and manteau, "cloak."
Guy Standing is the author of “The Precariat - The New Dangerous Class” and is Professor of Economic Security, University of Bath, England. In his book he proposes a basic income as a solution for addressing the problem of “robotization” of the economy. Other solutions have been proposed to include taxation of robots to pay for people’s retraining and sustenance.
According to Standing, “forty years ago, it was widely predicted that by now everybody would be working for income for about 20 hours a week, living in security and in professional positions of some kind. Instead, we have experienced the growth of a new and dangerously angry class, the precariat.”
Millions of people across the world, in the developed and underdeveloped world, are living and working in economic and social distress, many in casual or short-term, low-paid jobs, with insecurity they worry about. Incomes now, fluctuate unpredictably with no benefits that most people used to take for granted. No paid vacations, sick leave, or subsidized training. In addition, no worthwhile pension to look for at old age, and no assurance that losing a job will be protected by a social safety-net of state benefits or other assistance.
The precariat is a world phenomenon enraging those who feel entitle over others which are awakening the dark forces of nationalism, racism and many other isms of the past. It is not just a matter of economic insecurity but also dignity in occupational identity. People today, do not feel they are becoming somebody, or doing the types of work they would like or what they had been led to expect when they pursued all those years of schooling. They feel cheated by somebody who is now replacing them when in reality is a simple process of economics and sociology which helps define the precariat as a feeling of doing a lot of work that is not compensated.
Labor and economic statistics do not reveal the realities of the precariat as these methods of measuring economic activity were designed for another age which presently conceals the underlying issues that are not treated as having economic value.
Standing states that the precariat consists of three main groups – “those falling out of working-class jobs and communities, those who accept insecurity because they have never had any better, and those who are educated and are experiencing status frustration. The first group tends to want the past back, without any prospect of all those stable jobs returning; the second group, made up mainly of migrants, the disabled, minorities and so on, tends to drift into the margins of society; the third group is what exploded into the streets and squares of great cities last year, in the Occupy movement, in Euro-May-Day parades across Europe, in the indignados in Madrid, in Athens and in the Middle East”.
Politicians must wake up to the realities of the precariat! First, because we are all at risk! Second, anybody in the precariat is vulnerable to recurrent poverty, leading to a loss of capacity to sustain a life of dignity, falling into debt, in and out of hollow jobs!
Third, the precariat face risks everywhere they turn. The biggest source of anxiety is uncertainty. Economists tell us that you cannot insure against uncertainty, because one cannot work out the probability of an adverse event. When someone’s fate is determined by ecological shocks or by decisions taken on the far side of the world, getting hurt or not becomes a matter of luck but the fear spreads nevertheless. Anxiety and fear for not being competitive in a changing world and being inadequate to change fast enough with the trend.
Standing believes that the precariat also suffer from what sociologists call anomie, a feeling of despair and wanting to escape from the insecurities and meaninglessness. All this comes together in what psychologists call an attention deficit syndrome where we could lose the ability to concentrate.
Then there is the sense of alienation as precariat tends to feel they are not doing what they would like to do, or what they are capable of doing, while having to do a lot of what they do not want to do. Moreover, and dangerously alienating the social order that feeds into a lack of empathy with others.
Standing follows that “the precariat sees winners on screens, billboards and newspapers, celebrities and absurdly affluent rogues striding the globe with their millions and billions. Meanwhile, they are stressed, and become intolerant towards others - strangers - unless they have the education to see the futility and inappropriateness of that reaction”.
Finally, according to Standing this is what is feeding a growing protest movement around the world. Last year and this year were a harbinger of more days of rage during elections. Going forward we will see the precariat taking shape as a political force, demanding political parties and governments respond to the insecurities and to their aspirations for a better working identity, through having greater control of their time and more access to the wealth that currently goes to a tiny minority which is a burning issue for Senator Sanders in America. This anger will surely translate into a progressive or a fascist agenda for a better or worse society and we’ll watch it grow in front of us.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), took effect on January 1, 1994. It called for the phasing out all restrictions on trade and investment flows among the United States, Canada, and Mexico over 10 years (with a few of the most sensitive restrictions to be eliminated over 15 years). The United States and Canada were well into removing trade barriers between themselves, so the main new feature of NAFTA was the removal of the barriers between Mexico and those two countries.
Almost twenty five years later, most artificial impediments to trade and investment between the United States and Mexico have been dismantled. In 2001, 87 percent of imports from Mexico entered the United States duty free. The average duty on the remainder was only 1.4 percent, for an overall average tariff rate of 0.2 percent, down from 2.1 percent in 1993. The overall average Mexican tariff rate in 2001 was only 1.3 percent, down from 12 percent in 1993. Enough time has passed and enough of NAFTA’s trade and investment liberalization has been implemented that any substantial effects of the agreement should be evident by now.
A Congressional Budget Office Report States the following facts:
• U.S. trade with Mexico was growing for many years before NAFTA went into effect, and it would have continued to do so with or without the agreement. That growth dwarfs the effects of NAFTA.
• NAFTA has increased both U.S. exports to and imports from Mexico by a growing amount each year. Those increases are small, and consequently, their effects on employment are also small.
• The expanded trade resulting from NAFTA has raised the United States’ gross domestic product very slightly. (The effect on Mexican GDP has also been positive and probably similar in magnitude. Because the Mexican economy is much smaller than the U.S. economy, however, that effect represents a much larger percentage increase for the Mexican economy.)
The ongoing debate since the 1994 inception of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico has two opposing conclusions: NAFTA's proponents believe that more jobs were ultimately created in the USA. Opponents see the agreements as having been costly to well-paying American jobs.
Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, studied at Florida International University
Big data and analytics are today at the top of the corporate agenda. Together, they promise to transform the way companies do business, delivering the kind of performance gains last seen when computers became of age in the 1990s, and organizations redesigned their core processes. As data-driven strategies become part of the business playground, they will become an increasingly important point of competitive differentiation.
With big data companies are able to identify, combine, and manage multiple sources of inputs. This data gathering provides the capability to build advanced-analytics models for predicting and optimizing outcomes.
A clear vision of the desired business impact must shape the combined approach to data sourcing, model building, and organizational transformation. This will help avoid the common trap of asking what big data strategy can do.
Deep learning is a disruptive technology like the Internet and mobile computing once were. Open source software has been the dominant platform that has enabled these technologies to evolve. When a company strategy is to use disruptive technology or a disruptive business model, the results can be spectacular and can leave the competition far behind the end line. The reason for this developmental trend is that company’s growth might seem linear at first; it eventually exposes itself as being exponential. After this point, it becomes very difficult, if not impossible, for competitors to catch up.
Deep learning algorithms continue to mature at a rapid pace. In the beginning, frameworks exploited the available matrix multiplication libraries. These finely tuned algorithms have been developed over decades to its present state. As research continues, newer kinds of algorithms are being proposed.
Aside from being a very recent technology, the software that supports deep learning is a complex stack. A common perception is that most deep learning frameworks (i.e. TensorFlow, Torch, Caffe etc) are open source and many developers can participate the world over on making improvements to the knowledge and master many capabilities not yet discovered.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, studied at Florida International University
Recently there has been some discussion about the definition of two roles: Business Controller (BC) and Financial Controller (FC). The role of a controller in the US is given a different interpretation and is completely geared towards protection of assets and managing risks where in European companies there is no discernible difference. In emerging economies however, there is still a need to define these roles as It is also a very different market environment with its own set of challenges.
Tasks Definitions of a Business Controller
A Business Controller is business and commercially focused. He blends with other functions outside of finance— in a way a consultant does. He is active, aggressive, forward looking and future oriented. With his strong background in logistics, production and sales, he can develop business plans and define ways to identify gaps, and take advantage of market opportunities. He needs to understand what drives the business and has to define ways to measure and report on the key indicators. He will concentrate more on the P&L than on the Balance Sheet. Often he also needs to think of ways to identify cost saving opportunities and efficiency gains. It is a social job and he is a real part of the line management and decision making, including all risks involved for the particular business.
Tasks Definitions of a Financial Controller
A Financial Controller will have responsibilities for the accuracy of reporting historical information. His job description requires competencies that consist of understanding and assuring compliance with regulations such as GAAP, IFRS, SOX and tax norms. The Financial Controller will manage the external audit and do the statutory reporting to stockholders. A Financial Controller will run reports and controls on Accounts Payable, Accounts receivable, etc. He relies more on the Balance Sheet than the P&L analysis. He is also responsible for controlling the financial liabilities of the business such as payable accounts and outstanding loans. Finally, he is more into the financial works of the company than with business development.
From these definitions of functions one can conclude that a business controller will need participate strategically in the business using creativity and innovation in order to keep the company at par with current technologies and market needs. Whilst the Financial controller spends most resources making sure the numbers agree on both sides of a ledger and compliance with regulators is achieved on regular basis.

Monday, September 18, 2017


In economic studies the minimum wage is an example of a price floor. A price floor is the absolute minimum price at which a good or service can be sold.
The market equilibrium price is where the supply of a good or service meets the demand for it in the marketplace. The minimum wage price floor is enacted so that the suppliers (current or potential employees in this case) will not sell their labor below the designated price even if the demanders (employers) are willing to hire them for less.
In economic theory, a price floor creates a surplus in the market place because there is more supply than demand at the set price. This theory applies to the market for labor as well. However, this supply and demand model may not fully portray the dynamic nature of the labor market, leading to a debate on the implications of raising the minimum wage. No matter which side of the debate economists are increasing the minimum wage is complex and may vary by company and industry.
Pro arguments for increasing the minimum wage
Raising the minimum wage would increase economic activity and motivate job growth.
· Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predicted that a $1.75 rise in the federal minimum wage would increase aggregate household spending by $48 billion the following year, boosting GDP and leading to job growth.
Increasing the minimum wage would reduce poverty.
· A person working full time at the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour earns $15,080 in a year, which is 20% higher than the 2015 federal poverty level of $12,331 for a one-person household under 65 years of age but 8% below the 2015 federal poverty level of $16,337 for a single-parent family with a child under 18 years of age.
A higher minimum wage would reduce government welfare spending.
· If low-income workers earned more money, their dependence on, and eligibility for, government benefits would fall.
The minimum wage has not kept up with inflation.
· The federal minimum wage is not indexed for inflation, as a consequence its purchasing power has dropped considerably since its top in 1968.
Improvements in productivity and economic growth have outpaced increases in the minimum wage.
· According to a study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), the federal minimum wage would have been $21.72 per hour in 2012, instead of $7.25, if the minimum wage had kept pace with increases in productivity since 1968. The Economist stated in 2015 that "America as a whole is an outlier among advanced economies where GDP per person is $53,000, minimum wage around $12 an hour should be paid to workers.
Increasing the minimum wage would reduce income inequality.
· Among the 34 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, the United States has one of the highest levels of income inequality
Increasing the minimum wage would increase worker productivity and reduce employee turnover.
· Increases in wages are associated with increased productivity, according to many economists, including Janet Yellen, PhD, Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The current minimum wage is not high enough to allow people to afford everyday essentials.
· According to a 2013 poll by Oxfam America, 66% of US workers earning less than $10 an hour report that they "just meet" or "don't even have enough to meet" their basic living expenses, and 50% say that they are frequently worried about affording basic necessities such as food.
Arguments against increasing the minimum wage
Increasing the minimum wage would force businesses to lay off employees and raise unemployment levels. The Congressional Budget Office projected that a minimum wage increase from $7.25 to $10.10 would result in a loss of 500,000 jobs.
Raising the minimum wage would increase poverty.
· A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that although low-income workers see wage increases when the minimum wage is raised, "their hours and employment decline, and the combined effect of these changes is a decline in earned income... minimum wages increase the proportion of families that are poor or near-poor."
A minimum wage increase would hurt businesses and force companies to close.
· 60% of small-business owners say that raising the minimum wage will "hurt most small-business owners," according to a 2013 Gallup poll.
Raising the minimum wage would increase the price of consumer goods.
· A 2013 article by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago stated that if the minimum wage is increased, fast-food restaurants would pass on almost 100% of their increased labor costs on to consumers and that other firms may do the same.
Teenagers and young adults may be shut out of the workforce if the minimum wage is increased. Minimum wage workers are disproportionately young.
· According to the Pew Research Center, persons in the 16- to 24-year-group make up 50.4% of minimum wage earners, despite representing only 13.7% of the workforce as a whole.
Raising the minimum wage would disadvantage low-skilled workers.
· From an employer's perspective, people with the lowest skill levels cannot justify higher wages.
Increasing the minimum wage reduces the likelihood of upward mobility.
· Don Boudreaux, Adjunct Scholar at the Cato Institute, explains, "the minimum wage cuts off the first step of the employment ladder, and it's that first lowest paying rung that provides the skills and experience workers need to reach the next rung and to continue climbing their way to a better life."
The free market should determine minimum wages, not the federal government.
· A survey by the Small Business Network found that 82% of small businesses agreed that "the government should not be setting wage rates." market-determined wages result in more employment opportunities for unskilled workers, increased profits for companies, and lower prices for the consumer.
Conclusion
Whether the minimum wage is increased, or not companies are already using more robots and automated processes to replace service employees. Companies will continue to use automation to avoid hiring people in unskilled positions altogether.
Oxford University researchers stated in a 2013 study that "robots are already performing many simple service tasks such as vacuuming, mopping, lawn mowing, and gutter cleaning" and that "commercial service robots are now able to perform more complex tasks in food preparation, health care, commercial cleaning, and elderly care." With this trend in mind economic theory related to minimum wage needs to be revisited in the 21st Century.

Data science in the astrophysics area or data science in the social science area is limiting what “Big Data Analysis” can do in the 21st Century.

In a July 20th, 2017 article from NY Times reports of China’s heavy investment on A.I.:
In June, the government of Tianjin, an eastern city near Beijing, said it planned to set up a $5 billion fund to support the A.I. industry.
An August 2017 report “Japan to pump funding into AI chip development” from Nikkei writes about heavy investment by the Japanese of A.I. hardware:
Vladimir Putin through a broadcasted speech to the students of Russia he told them: “the one who becomes the leader in this sphere will be the ruler of the world.” In classic Russian fashion, the government’s Military Industrial Committee has set a target of making 30 percent of military equipment robotic by 2025.
The EU and U.S. government investments in Artificial Intelligence are both more specifically funding “Deep Learning. “
To date, the Trump administration has not paid attention to how AI is likely to affect Americans or the world around us. The administration dismisses concerns that automation will displace U.S. workers as the Office of Science and Technology Policy lies in shambles.
The Government of Canada announced $125 million in funding for a Pan-Canadian Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy to be led by the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR).
Meanwhile in the U.S. the academic institutions are being starved of government research funding and are forced into indentured servitude. The latest MIT-IBM announcement is simply a reflection of this predicament.
Meanwhile in the U.S. the academic institutions are starving of government research funding and are being forced into indentured bondage; i.e., MIT-IBM holding hands as a reflection of this predicament.
Today, corporations like Google, Microsoft and Facebook are performing the majority of the research on Deep Learning and these firms are way ahead of anything the government is doing. They’re stripping out universities for research-work in places like Silicon Valley.
In this new world order it means that us commons, we’ll have to hope that others will be kind enough to share their discoveries with us.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development
Not many subjects in economics have caused so much confusion and economic uncertainty in the past and present that a country might have a deficit in its balance of payments. This notion of fear is unjustified for two reasons: (1) there is never a deficit (2) if there was one it would not inevitably hurt anything
The payments and receipts of the residents of a country in their transactions with residents of other countries is the balance of payments. When all transactions are included, the accounting payments and receipts of each country must be equal. Any surplus or deficit simply leaves one country acquiring assets in the other. For instance, if Americans bought goods from Europe and have no other transactions with the EU, this trade bloc must end up holding dollars in the form of bank deposits in the United States or in some other U.S. investment. The payments Americans make to the EU merchandise is balanced by the payments Europeans make to U.S. individuals and institutions, including banks, for the acquisition of dollar nominated assets. In simpler terms the EU sold the United States merchandise and the United States sold the EU dollars or dollar-denominated assets such as treasury bills, real estate or other holdings.
Accounting wise, the totals of payments and receipts are equal, however, there will be inequalities in excesses of payments or receipts, known as deficits or surpluses in specific of transactions. There may be a deficit or surplus in any transaction such as: merchandise trade, services, foreign investment, unilateral transfers, foreign aid, private investment, the flow of gold and money between central banks and treasuries, or any other combination of these international transactions. When a statement is made that a country has a deficit or surplus in its “balance of payments” it must refer to some particular class of transaction.
In the past, many different definitions of the balance-of-payments deficit or surplus have been used and each definition has had different implications and purposes. Until the year 1973 attention was concentrated on a definition intended to measure a country’s ability to meet its obligation by exchange of its currency for other currencies or for gold at fixed exchange rates. Countries maintained a stock of official reserves, in the form of gold or foreign currencies that they could use to value their own currencies. A decline in this standard was considered a balance-of-payments deficit because it threatened the ability of the country to meet its obligations.
Beyond 1973, the balance-of-payments deficit or surplus refers to what is presently called the current account. This account contains trade in goods and services, investment income earned abroad, and unilateral transfers. It excludes the capital account in the acquisition or sale of securities or other property.
Because the current account and the capital account add up to the total account, which is necessarily balanced, a deficit in the current account is always accompanied by an equal surplus in the capital account, and vice versa. A deficit or surplus in the current account cannot be explained or evaluated without simultaneously explaining and evaluating an equal surplus or deficit in the capital account.
According to the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C by the end of 2003, “Americans owned assets abroad valued at market prices of $7.86 trillion, while foreigners owned U.S. assets valued at market prices of $10.52 trillion. The net international investment position of the United States, therefore, was $2.66 trillion. This was only 8.5 percent of the U.S. capital stock.”