Saturday, June 3, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Political junkie
Post-election America, businesses in the world are cautious about what a President Donald Trump means for the world’s economy, especially where trade is concerned.
According to Ryan O’Regan International Trade Associate of Ireland proposals in the Speaker Ryan’s tax plan, the most relevant to trade is the institution of a “destination-basis” tax system designed to counter the effects of foreign VATs, (value added tax),which some see as discriminating against imports and favoring exports. As such, Speaker Ryan and his party have laid out a proposal taxing imports but excluding exports, essentially imposing a VAT on products brought into the United States. While the effectiveness of such a measure (and indeed its compliance with WTO rules) is disputed, it seems likely to sail through Congress, and will have a significant impact on those EU companies doing business with the United States.”
For the agreements already in force, Trump has the authority to re-negotiate or pull out of any agreement on his own authority. NAFTA negotiators with Mexico and Canada are already preparing their talking points. Assuming that such negotiations do not result in damage to the agreement with the introduction of tariffs, the U.S.-Canada softwood dispute for one—which argues that the United States opposes imports of lumber from Canada’s federal lands for not being market priced, and tougher labor/environmental regulations for Mexico in order to increase the ability of U.S./Canada labor to compete on an even plain field. However, Trump has not indicated what he might be willing to give in exchange for concessions requests as he might just resort to economic leverage to extract favor which is one reason Trump prefers bilateral agreements opposed to multi-lateral agreements because he can exercise his economic advantage to extort what he wants fro a treaty on a one-to-one basis.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development
Trade deficit is more about political rhetoric than economics. Trump made use of his propaganda machine during the campaign to gain support from those he perceived as being left out of the world economy. This might have given him the presidency but his slogans have nothing to do with trade economics.
Business decisions are made based on market economics not on presidential edicts of where to locate a new factory or how many jobs to create in a given sector of the country-economy. His stances are popular with the unemployed because no one wants unemployment or be left out of the domestic budget, however, his bombastic speeches don’t transform economic realities. Current jobs are being created in green energy but the president wants to create jobs in the coal industry which is a dying occupation in the economic cycle started by the industrial revolution.
Abandoning innovation and technological change will only lead to more deficits as other countries modify and adapt to a changing world economy and the US stays stuck in the mud of political rhetoric and pompous empty promises.

Friday, May 26, 2017




Prices of imported goods are greatly affected by a currency exchange rate regime, as well as the monetary policy in place and the link between exchange rate movements and import prices. Recent debates hinge on whether producer-currency-pricing (PCP) or local currency pricing (LCP) of imports is more predominant, and on whether exchange rate “pass-through” rates are endogenous to a country's macroeconomic conditions.
A significant issue for industry competitiveness is the degree to which exchange rate changes affect the prices of imported goods. Many researchers have focused on the issue of domestic consumer price index (CPI) and its relationship to currency exchange rates and how importers “pass through” changes in exchange rates to prices. This makes the exchange rate a consequence of domestic inflation and very important when considering monetary policy. The theoretical framework shows that there are four factors determining the axis of exchange rate pass-through: the openness of the economy, flexibility between price-firms in the economy, the reliability of the central bank, and the amount of exchange rate fluctuation “pass through” at the level of the producer-firm. The practical result is that the foreign firm’s optimum price drops as the domestic currency appreciates, because appreciations of the domestic currency behaves like a reduction in the cost of production.
The problem of domestic firm pricing is comparable to that of the foreign firm, with one exception: the currency exchange rate has no role in the pricing decisions of the domestic firm, as all costs of production are sustained in the domestic economy.
Exchange rate “pass-through” studies consider the extent to which exchange rate movements are added into imported merchandise prices or in contrast, a reduction in producer profit margins or markups. Recent studies indicate a “pass through” average of imported prices as 0.61 in the short-run and 0.77 in the long-run for the OECD country group.
The standard assumption of price behavior is that markets are imperfectly competitive, where most businesses have some power to set prices. It follows the model assumption that the average business sets a unit price (P) and a mark-up (M) over the unit labor cost in production measured at a fixed rate of capacity utilization use of plant and equipment adding only the unit materials cost. This standard business procedure takes on the analysis of the Phillips curve. This concept was developed by A. W. Phillips showing that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. However, in recent years there has been a new Keynesian interpretation explaining the breakdown of the simple Phillips curve in terms of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU).
This exists at the Short Run Phillips Curve, as the rate of unemployment at which inflation will stabilize or that this rate of unemployment, prices will raise at the same rate each year
An alternative explanation for changes in exchange rate “pass-through” aggregate import prices can be related to the composition of a country’s imports. Pass through elasticity is different across types of imports, and these changes could deliver variations in the “pass through” elasticity to the aggregate import prices.
According to the US International Trade Commission around 90% of U.S. imports in the Bills of Lading sampled for data analysis report prices in US dollars. This fraction however varies by country of origin. The fraction of imports in the exporter’s currency is, for example, 34% from Germany, 16% from U.K. and 13% from Japan.
As is well known, a significant fraction of trade takes place inter-firm. This database analysis allows the identification of transactions taking place with inter-firm transactions excluded. Test-theories of prices that are driven mainly by market forces exclude inter-firm prices from analysis.
Currency Arbitrage
A foreign exchange strategy takes place when a currency trader profits from the different spreads offered by brokers of a particular currency-pair that are being offered for trade. There are many spreads in a currency-pair market which imply disparities between the bids and ask prices. Buying and selling currency pairs from different brokers in order to profit from currency disparity involves what is known as currency arbitrage.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development
The short answer is politics not economics. Trump likes to apply leverage when conducting negotiations about any issue specifically for negotiating bilateral trade agreements where the US economy towers any country’s GDP and it can exercise its weight. In multilateral trade agreement the US is one of many countries entering the agreement and its GDP can be dwarfed by the cumulative GDP’s of the countries entering the agreement, therefore, little leverage can be exercise which was the case of TPP.
In order to understand the overall picture of how international trade affects the economies of participating countries it is necessary to start with the basics.
By definition: Bilateral trade agreements are between two nations which gives them favored trading status with each other. The goal is to increase each country's economic growth.
Bilateral agreements are made in order to cover five general areas where they standardize business operations, to level the playing field. That keeps one country from copying the other's innovative products, dumping products, or using unfair subsidies.
Additionally, these agreements also standardize regulations, labor standards and environmental protections. A prime issue of the agreement is the elimination of tariffs and other trade taxes. This gives companies within both countries a price advantage.
Advantages of bilateral trade Agreements
These agreements are easier to negotiate than multilateral trade agreements, because they only involve two countries, meaning they can go into effect faster and securing trade benefits promptly.
It is easier to negotiate bilateral agreements since there are only two parties and it is easier to withdraw from it.
Neither the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), nor the TPP require any kind of international agreement for withdrawal. Consistent with authorizing US law, TPP’s Article 30.6 and NAFTA’s Article 2205 provide that a withdrawal is effective after six months’ notice.
Disadvantages of Bilateral Trade Agreements
They can more often than not trigger competing bilateral agreements between other countries. This can carve away the advantages the FTA had provided between the original two nations. The distinction between bilateral and multilateral agreements is not as crispy clear as we would like it to be.
A Good Example
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is set to remove current barriers to trade between the United States and the European Union and If it passes it would be the largest agreement so far, even than NAFTA. It is currently under arbitration and considering that the EU consists of many member countries, it can negotiate as one entity. It can also be said that this makes the TTIP a bilateral trade agreement.
Advantages of Multilateral Agreements
Multilateral agreements can promote international standards as well as generate the efficiency's gained by a bigger market. Tariffs on merchandise are relatively low across most product-categories and non-tariff barriers for both goods and services which have now become key issues of trade negotiations. Additionally, there is international rivalry for standard setting, with the competition playing out across fields in areas such as energy, environmental rules, and information and communication technologies. When countries agree on common standards and rules, they can create scale and competitive advantages for their products.
An important benefit of multilateral trade agreements, for exporters, is accumulation, also known as “cumulation.” For example, TPP allowed accumulation of rules of origin making it easier for businesses to establish supply chains with hassle-free country of origin restrictions. The TPP allows components from TPP countries to be combined into a finished product with simplified origin rules.
According to the European Union (EU) it has developed the “pan-Euro Mediterranean “ cumulation,” which is a diagonal accumulation of origin regime. The system allows for the accumulation between the EU members, European Free Trade Association (EFTA) states, Turkey, countries that signed the Barcelona Declaration, the Western Balkans and the Faroe Islands. The parties include a network of free trade agreements with similar origin rules. This system allows these countries to accumulate components from other pan-Euro Mediterranean countries.”
Enlarged General Production
The purpose of trade is to deliver access to a greater variety of merchandises and services. According to the Heritage Foundation, free trade fosters competition, spurring companies to innovate and develop better products
Economic Development of Disadvantage Areas
Free trade compensates risk-taking through increased sales and market share of a given product. When a large country like the United States take advantage of free trade, its economy as a whole benefits. Economic growth spills over into smaller countries that are economically disadvantage or stalled in poverty but are open to trade and international Cooperation.
Free trade forces companies to support and maintain the rule of law. The World Trade Organization requires members to honor all agreements and abide by all WTO judgments. Countries that do not abide the rules lose business and investors move their money away to countries that play by the rules.
Market Allocation of Resources
Free trade improves the allocation of global resources. When countries or people can trade for the articles they need, they can focus on making the ones they can make best and thus, acquiring competitive advantage. Imports tend to placate inflation, as each product or service flows from the most competitive supply source to the lowest.
Incentives for Business and Individuals
Trade agreements open markets and offer business incentives and protections. This includes obligations to protect intellectual property rights labor standards and open new markets to competition. Also, it oversees environmental standards and improves customs simplification. Lastly, global investment allows for greater diversification and risk sharing of financial markets.
Increase in U.S. Exports in Millions of U.S. dollars Since Entering FTA Agreements.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
According to the International Affairs of the US Chamber of Commerce the Country has benefited from international Trade for the past 4 decades.
“The study employed a computable general equilibrium economic model used by economists worldwide known as the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). This model, developed in the early 1990's is now maintained—and constantly enhanced—by a consortium of 31 U.S. and international organizations, including the U.S. International Trade Commission, the WTO, the World Bank, and half a dozen U.S. government agencies. The results of this comprehensive study are impressive. The increased trade brought about by these FTAs boosted U.S. output by more than $300 billion and in turn supported 5.4 million U.S. jobs. No other budget neutral initiative undertaken by the U.S. government has generated jobs on a scale comparable to these FTA's, with the exception of the multilateral trade liberalization begun in 1947.”
The broad historical context for U.S. manufacturers in assessing value-added in manufacturing—this approach avoids double counting that can result along manufacturing supply chains—U.S. manufacturing value-added rose by 58% between 1993 and 2013 in real terms, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The long trend has been that U.S. manufacturing value-added has grown eight-fold since 1947 in real terms. Contrary to popular fallacy, the U.S. share of world manufacturing output, on a value-added basis, has remained fairly steady at approximately 20% in four decades. American manufacturers were hurt by the painful 2007–2009 recession. However, in the previous two decades, U.S. manufacturers established new records for output, revenues, profits, profit rates, and return on investment.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Information for U.S. Exporters is available through the Department of Commerce at: http://www.export.gov/FTA/index.asp
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) established a free-trade zone in North America; it was signed in 1992 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and took effect on Jan. 1, 1994. NAFTA immediately lifted tariffs on the majority of goods produced by the signatory nations. It also calls for the gradual elimination, over a period of 15 years, of most remaining barriers to cross-border investment and to the movement of goods and services among the three countries.
The following U. S. NAFTA Web Site information is advisory only. The site is not responsible for damages caused by following the links and any information contained therein.
NAFTA Summary
Advance Rulings
An advance ruling is a written document received from the customs authority from a NAFTA country. It provides binding information on specific NAFTA questions you may have about future imports of goods into Canada, Mexico and the United States.
Certificate of Origin Ruling
This is a trilaterally agreed upon form used by Canada, Mexico, and the United States to certify that goods qualify for the preferential tariff treatment accorded by NAFTA. The Certificate of Origin must be completed by the exporter. A producer or manufacturer may also complete a certificate of origin in a NAFTA territory to be used as a basis for an Exporter’s Certificate of Origin. To make a claim for NAFTA preference, the importer must possess a certificate of origin at the time the claim is made.

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development

Below is a list of reliable data from public international institutions that collect and disseminate trade data free of charge to the general public which includes:
The United Nations Commercial Trade (UN), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), World Trade Organization (WTO), and Atlas Media published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Alfonso Llanes
Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development

In an Introduction to Foreign-Trade Zones U.S. Customs and Border Protection Explain:
Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) are secure areas under U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) supervision that are generally considered outside CBP territory upon activation. Located in or near CBP ports of entry, they are the United States' version of what are known internationally as free-trade zones.
Authority for establishing these facilities is granted by the Foreign-Trade Zones Board under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of 1934, as amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u). The Foreign-Trade Zones Act is administered through two sets of regulations, the FTZ Regulations (15 CFR Part 400) and CBP Regulations (19 CFR Part 146).
Foreign and domestic merchandise may be moved into zones for operations, not otherwise prohibited by law, including storage, exhibition, assembly, manufacturing, and processing. All zone activity is subject to public interest review. Foreign-trade zone sites are subject to the laws and regulations of the United States as well as those of the states and communities in which they are located.
Under zone procedures, the usual formal CBP entry procedures and payments of duties are not required on the foreign merchandise unless and until it enters CBP territory for domestic consumption, at which point the importer generally has the choice of paying duties at the rate of either the original foreign materials or the finished product. Domestic goods moved into the zone for export may be considered exported upon admission to the zone for purposes of excise tax rebates and drawback.
Qualified public or private corporations that may operate the facilities themselves or contract for the operation sponsors foreign-trade zones. The operations are conducted on a public utility basis, with published rates. A typical general-purpose zone provides leasable storage/distribution space to users in general warehouse-type buildings with access to various modes of transportation. Many zone projects include an industrial park site with lots on which zone users can construct their own facilities.
Sub zones are normally private plant sites authorized by the Board and sponsored by a grantee for operations that usually cannot be accommodated within an existing general-purpose zone.