Economic variations are the periodic lows and highs as a measure of economic activity. These include production levels, distribution, sales unemployment and inflation. Moreover, economic fluctuations affect wages, consumer demand, and the prices of raw materials and are categorized by its economic indicators. These variations can be seasonal; cyclical or irregular and could last for years.
Economic Indicators
Early warning indicators for business managers such as income growth usually follows higher consumer spending, which leads to increases in business spending. Unemployment or under employment can mean low consumer spending, leading to lower business revenues and profits. Inflationary forces drive up prices of raw materials and wages, increasing production costs. Inflation may lead to higher interest rates, which usually increases borrowing costs and decreases consumer spending as well as economic activity overall.
Seasonal Economic Fluctuations
Seasonal economic fluctuations are short-term variations of economic activity that generally follow a consistent pattern. For instance, amusement parks income rises during the summer months when there is activity in those sectors. Retail inventories commonly rise during the holidays as retailers prepare for these particular shoppers. In areas with harsh winters, construction slows down during the winter months and picks up during the summer. It follows that the businesses which supply these industries must plan for seasonal instabilities and have enough cash reserves to get them through the slow seasonal periods.
Cyclical Economic Fluctuations
Cyclical fluctuations are natural alternating periods of contraction and expansion in an economy that can than can last for several months or even years. Consumer and business demand falls during contraction and rises during expansion. Businesses and industry react to contractions by cutting back on employment, reducing expenses and delaying capital investment. A manufacturer may reduce the number of production shifts, while a retailer may delay expansion of the business. The reverse is true during economic expansion as consumer spending increases, leading to higher demand for products and services which results in production increases and new employment, which can also lead to higher prices and supply shortages.
Irregular Economic Fluctuations
Irregular economic fluctuations result from unusual events, such as war floods, strikes, civil conflict, bankruptcies and terrorist events. However the impact of these instabilities is usually limited to a determined industry or market. A flood may affect the distribution capability of goods within a specific region. In contrast, a major natural disasters or civil conflict can affect the supply chains of several industries.
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