Alfonso Llanes, Master Degree in International Development
There’s widespread consensus among legal scholars that it would trigger a period of uncertainty, followed by court challenges between the White House, industry, state governments and perhaps even the Congress of the United States.
Trump is nothing more than a cowboy that is all hat and no cow. He thrives on flexing his muscle on what he perceives to be a weaker opponent throwing his reptilian instincts ready to pounce on smaller pray. However, the reality is that a NAFTA disruption will bring chaos to agriculture and the supply chain of many companies that depend on parts or finish products to conduct their business that will result in numerous lawsuits from all three countries. Cancelling NAFTA does not mean any country is going to disappear only that it would be major disruption to the existing supply chain and economies of well established businesses.
Moreover, there will be a political and legal price to pay on the question of powers of the presidency, which include foreign affairs, control over tariffs delegated through various laws, and the provision in NAFTA that allows him to cancel the deal on six months' notice.
But on the other side is Congress, which has constitutional authority over international commerce and duties and when it passed a law to implement NAFTA a president's withdrawal would violate the law passed in 1993. There are landmark cases such as the Youngstown steel case of 1952, which established the limits of presidential power and all Trump could really do is re-institute tariffs on Mexico and Canada averaging 3.5 per cent as established by WTO standard which the US is a signatory member.
Politically, Trump is already in very hot water and his authority will be nullified with impeachment proceedings that are coming at him in a two prone approach: One is director’s Mueller criminal investigation on financial misfeasance and abuse of power and two, his political fray that many call treason resulting from his solicitation of Russian assistance to win the presidential election. Therefore, one should not pay much attention to what comes out of his viral mouth which is mostly hot air, with no substance and lacking intellectual value.
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