Will Trump's tariff be the cause of the next recession?

Apparently Trump is living in an alternative reality pegged to his emotional outbursts and absent knowledge of public policy issues. In real life, sound decisions come from the best advice on a subject as the usual way to govern not by promises made at a campaign rally in a circus-like atmosphere and drunken party goers. For stand-up comedians being funny and sarcastic might be acceptable behavior but not for the leader of western democracies where U.S. and world politicians are observing with dismay a charade that resembles more a psychopath’s conduct than a comedian President.

Many political observers predicted the collapse of the market due to Trump’s administration destructive policies and they were right about the facts but wrong about the timing. The issues in front of Americans today are how to stop the drive towards the abyss and still have a functional democracy? Should the President be consider normal and be afforded a private interview by Director Mueller or be subpoena to testify in front of the Grand Jury? Trump is impervious to the difference between reality and fiction and where he lives in the virtual reality of a video game where he can always win.

Here is one transcending fact about the U.S. economy as recently reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): "The United States recorded a government debt equivalent to 105.40 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2017." Simple accounting tells us that if liabilities are larger than assets—WE ARE BANKRUPT!

Trump nevertheless, handed billions in tax cuts to his circle of oligarchs while the country is in technical bankruptcy! If Trump is expecting to renegotiate the foreign debt held mainly by China and Japan like he negotiate his bankrupted casinos for a few cents on the dollar, he doesn’t understand the most basics principles of financial markets. He never attended graduate school at Wharton as he claims for he could not pass the entrance requirements. This is not surprising if his most sophisticated reading material was a MacDonald’s menu. Trump’s actions can result in the world ganging up against America as it stops being the beacon of the world in its social science of human achievement.

Tariffs have already prompted threats of retaliation from America’s leading trade partners; European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker has discussed putting tariffs on “blue jeans, bourbon, and Harley-Davidson motorcycles — three iconic American exports”. Trade Minister of the western world are openly warning Trump that his rhetoric and actions may sink the world into a deep and dark recession.

According to WH staff, Trump’s decision to launch an “easy” winnable trade war was born out of uncontrollable anger with the burning scandals of his own creation now creeping up on him like his sexual habits, his lack of ethics, his abuse of power, and most damming his collusion with the Russian who brokered his election.

White-house staff often report that the president is detached from his surroundings arguing with himself, firing advisers or staff that refuse to commit suicide or go to jail on his behalf as he considers it an unquestionable loyalty owed him for the privilege of serving in his administration.

The people who elected Trump should think about all of that for a moment as staff inside the White House are telling the press that bad political news causes the president to become rabid with anger when he decides that the best way to respond to his worst instinct to launch a trade war. This is policy making out of sheer emotional instability and dictatorial rule that in the past has resulted in bloody precedence of a kinetic war.

Trump’s dangerous decision-making is view by many as the new normal. He does not consult with his economic and diplomatic advisers on the best way to implement his chaotic policies like tariffs and just acts on his own outburst of anger to make public announcements. The White House was virtually unprepared for the all-too-predictable angry response from foreign leaders after Trump’s monumental decision on tariffs before it was made. Nobody in Congress, the State Department, the Treasury Department or the Defense Department had been told that a new policy was about to be announced or given an opportunity to weigh in in advance.

Wilbur Ross, the un-dead Trump administration’s commerce secretary, who also has a shady past over a deal with a Russian businessman connected to Vladimir Putin. The connection took place while serving as vice-chairman of the Bank of Cyprus. As the front line spokesman for Trump’s justification of tariffs just patched up a communication email to all concern and approved by Trump as the whole policy plan.

We learned from inside the White House that the reason this kind of behavior hasn’t happened before, is that Trump’s advisers have been able to keep his worst instincts in place. Moreover, many of the gate keepers are leaving or being fired with few sober heads, like Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, that have to figure out ways to coaxing Trump away from his psychopathic destructive impulses and toward a more measured, conventional policy approach.