Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Freight Rates Optimization

Economists tell us that pricing strategy is contingent upon the highest level the market will bear but parallel to the constraints imposed by supply and demand. Conversely, “the market” is a plural as there are many markets and each market has to develop a unique pricing strategy, specially, in freight transportation--in order to endure its distinctive set of constrictions such as routes, traffic, competition, geography, ports, facilities, capacity, etc.
Specifically, freight markets are exclusive to each surface domain whether ground, air, water or a combination thereof. As a result, freight rate optimization must be implemented within an individual domain not only because the exercise takes place in a particular environment, but also, because the prerequisites required by the vehicles used for the implementation of conveyance with many of its variables.
It follows that a better question to ask when trying to optimize a freight rate would be: What is the optimal combination for a particular mode of transportation? How distance and geography affect the calculation after the cost of terminal facilities at each end are factored in? What about line haul, short haul or intermodal within or outside of a vehicle’s constraints? Perhaps the most difficult task to evaluate or measure is the cargo type which comes in many sizes, flavors and incumbent upon individual vehicle specifications. Cargo in its many forms can vary from bulk, breakbulk, containerized, liquid, dry, oversize, overweight, fresh, frozen or hazardous just to mention a few in the catalog. In addition, commodities have different packaging requirements and unique stowage factors that influence handling requirements and thus, cost. Moreover, the traditional economic principles of supply and demand, competition, efficiency, market specialization and so on are to be concerned with at the end of the day.  This universe of variable can be best expressed with a diagram where a definite integral depicts a generic market behaving within highs and lows of an average space for an interval of time.                                          

                                                              
This scenario suggests that a great deal of understanding, knowledge, training and capital is required for a new enterprise to enter a freight market. This paper suggests the economic challenge and capital exposure that each method of transportation represents; and, in order to evaluate revenue and cost based on optimal freight pricing in a competitive market those fundamental issues need to be address.
One very significant independent variable responsible for the many headaches in the industry is dimensional weight or stowage factor which is the area to volume ratio cm³/cm²*6 for a cube or 1/6 where 6000cm³=1 Kilo. In general, if we inscribe a cube Z in a sphere of radius R and optimize the cube’s volume in relation to the constriction of the sphere’s radius, then we have an optimization problem in three dimensions.

In this case the ratio is volume- to- volume within the constraint of the sphere’s dimensions and the equation isolating one variable becomes:
    Where (r) is the radius of the sphere.
Solving with partial derivatives for (x)     product rule & chain rule
The maximum volume of a box inscribed in a sphere is therefore =  


And
   

The point of calculating a cube inscribed inside a sphere is that the cube is the figure that has the most volume per surface area after the sphere. But, in the real world of transportation vehicles are not practical as spheres or cubes even though there may be the most efficient geometric surface. Builders must consider that these vehicles need to transit on roads or over rails. As a result, rectangular rail box cars and vans are the most common vehicles in use today. Whereas aircraft and ships are a special cases of SA/V and will be address later.
Historically, maximization or minimization became an issue during World War II as British military leaders asked scientists and engineers to analyze several military problems which resulted in what is now call Operations Research. Professor Morse at MIT was one of the pioneers of OR. 
In the setting of linear programming an objective equation model is arranged with a traditional number of constrictions (as was the case of the cube inscribed in a sphere of radius R mentioned above). Then, the objective equation is used to solve the problem. Furthermore, the Objective Equation is a component of the Simplex Method which is the common way for the numerical solution of linear programming problems. The Method was created by George B. Dantzig in 1947and John von Neumann, who independently developed the theory of duality and was the founder of the modern digital computer. This roundabout will get to freight optimization after all the recipe ingredients are accounted for.
Another component of the optimization paradigm is the addition of Freeform Transformations (or topology optimization) the mathematical approach for determining the optimum material layout for a given space which takes into account a number of design constraints such as the ratio of volume to area schemes previously mentioned. Historically, topology began with the investigation of certain questions in geometry. “Leonhard Euler's 1736 paper on the Seven Bridges of Königsberg is regarded as one of the first academic treatises in modern topology.” Wikipedia.
According to Hofstra University, “transportation systems are commonly represented using networks as an analogy for their structure and flows.” Euler treatise has now been expanded to include other fields such as networks that belong to a wider category of spatial networks which led to the development of graph theory and its application to transportation network studies. These new engineering design challenges are there for improving the cost and fuel efficiency of vehicles using light weight designs and cost effective materials.
This paper will now focus on the vehicles currently in use for different modes of freight transportation and some of the constriction related to the operation of these vehicles.  The ideal vehicle is of course the one that cost the least and carries the most cargo. The “Greedy Algorithm” was developed for such purpose. Richard E. Bellman at the RAND Corporation applied Dynamic Programming to solve the “Knapsack problem” using the “Greedy Algorithm.”
Biographically, the “Knapsack problem” has been studied for over one hundred years. It is not known how the name  originated, though the problem was referred to as such in the early works of mathematician Tobias Dantzig (1884–1956, father of George Dantzig) suggesting that the name could have existed as a fable before a mathematical problem had been fully defined.
In reprise to the account of others, Eric Grimson, Professor of Computer Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology states:
“In order to solve a given problem using a dynamic programming approach, we need to solve different parts of the problem then combine the solutions of the parts to reach an overall solution.”
However, the intent of this paper is to give only a brief historical background of how we got here and not to go any deeper into the fields of dynamic optimization, networks, topology, geometry, engineering or physical laws. Nonetheless, there is a need to describe settings, to compare and contrast some of the vehicles in use today by carries of freight by air, ground or water surfaces.
The scope of this paper is not to question why carriers select to enter into a specific mode of transportation because it would be as speculative as trying to read someone’s mind or pretending to know the background, knowledge, capital available and vision of the founder(s).
Besides, most carriers now days are corporations or capital managers who look at the fundamentals of a given carrier and purchase the assets for profit. Individual examples of this market dynamic are Warren Buffet who purchased BNSF rail transportation or founder of FEDEX, Frederick W. Smith who is now listed in the stock market as a public company.
At this juncture, it would be useful to review the basics of performance, specifications, and financials of the different vehicles that comprise a given transportation methodology.
Perhaps the best approach for comparing and contrasting methods and vehicles would be to use the statistical data available for each mode of transportation starting with energy efficiency.


Consumption of energy in Proportional Miles per Gallon (PMPG)
Transport Equipment
 Gross Tonnage                  
Average PMPG
Ratio T/PMPG
Freight Ship (Handy size)
24,000
340.00
70.58
Freight Train (60’ Boxcar)
(Unit train 50 cars)
6,500
190.50
34.12
Plugin Hybrid
N/A
N/A
N/A
Airplane (Boeing 747-8)
140
42.60
3.29
 18-Wheeler (Truck)
36
32.20
1.12

Source: (PMPG) data comes from the U. S.  Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Ratio data is provided by the author. All figures are provided in Metric Tons.

Specifications, Costs and Volume to Area Efficiencies.
RAIL CARS:
60' Standard Boxcar. (60’ 9”L x 9’ 4" W x 10’10” H). (Metric 18.51 L x 2.84 W x 3.3 H=173.48m³)
Area: (60’ 9”x9’ 4”  572’ 4” ft²). (Metric 18.51 x 2.84= 52.57m²)
6,085 ft. cubic capacity.
6,085/572  10.63 cubic ft. per unit of area. (Metric 173.48/52.57 3.3m³ per unit of area)
Cargo Weight: 100 Metric Tons
Source: CSX.
Cost per km: $9.1 million. (2015)
Cost per Vehicle, Diesel-electric locomotives: $7.5 million. (2015)
Cost per Vehicle Standard 60’ Boxcar: $135,000. (2015)
Source: Market Watch.
FINANCIALS
Revenue/Cost Ratios: 1.47 (2015)
From Financial Statements                 
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

TRACTOR TRAILER DIMENSIONS 18 WHEELER:
Area: (52’x 8’25”  429’). (Metric 15.84 L x 3.07 W)=48.63m²
4050 ft. cubic capacity= (52’ L x 8’25” W x 9’17”H). (Metric 15.84 L x 3.07 W x 3.17 H=151.23m³)
(4050/429  9.44 cubic ft. per unit of area). (Metric 151.23/48.63 3.11m³ per unit of area).
Cargo Weight: 36 Metric Tons
Source: Wikipedia                                                                    
Cost per Vehicle Cab: $80,000 (2015)
Cost per Vehicle Van: $30,000 (2015)
Source: Freight liner trucks
FINANCIALS
Revenue/Cost Ratios: 1.55 (2015)
From Financial Statements                 
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

AIRCRAFT FREIGHTER:
Make-Model               Payload MT          CBM                                   Cargo hold meters
Boeing 747-8               140                  upper 692.7 hold              (L 2.40 x W 3.20)34 x H 3.00        
----------------                --------              Lower 165.7 hold             (L 3.20 x W 2.40)12
                                                            Total    858.4 CBM
(2.4x3.20)34 + (3.2x2.4)12= 353.28m²
(692.7+165.7)/353.28= 2.43 CBM³ per unit of area.
Cargo Weight: 140 Metric Tons
Cost per Aircraft: $357.5 million (2015)
Source: Boeing 747-8 Freighter
FINANCIALS
Revenue/Cost Ratios: 1.92 (2015)
From Financial Statements                 
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

International Convention on Tonnage Measurement of Ships
International Maritime Organization: Adopted 23 June 1969; Entry into force: 18 July 1982
Regulation 3 is based on two variables:
The gross tonnage (GT) of a ship shall be determined by the following formula: GT = K1V
Where: V = Total volume of all enclosed spaces of the ship in cubic meters,
K1 = 0.2 + 0.02log10V It is calculated by using the formula:
where V = total volume in m³ and K = a figure from 0.22 up to 0.32, depending on the ship’s size so that, for a ship of 10,000 m³ total volume, the gross tonnage would be 0.28 × 10,000 = 2,800. GT is consequently a measure of the overall size of the ship. For a ship of 80,000 m³ total volume the gross tonnage would be 0.2980617 × 80,000 = 23,844.94 GT or 23,844.94/.2980617=80,000 m³.
80,000/150x26= 20.51 CBM³ per unit of area.

CLASS: BV Bureau Veritas in Metric Tons
LBP: Length between perpendiculars150.00 L.
BREADTH: 26.00 W
Source: Wikipedia
Cost per Handy Size ship of 24,000 dwt Metric Tons: $25 million (2015)
Source: Lloyd’s Register

FINANCIALS
Revenue/Cost Ratios: 1.65 (2015)
From Financial Statements                 
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)


In closing, transportation network efficiency is a measure that can be used to assess the performance of the network in that it captures flows, costs, and mobility behavior information, along with its topology. Each mode of transportation network has its own particulars for efficiency analysis but in general:

The characteristic path length of a network is defined as the average of the shortest path lengths between any two nodes:  where D I, j is the shortest path length between i and j defined as the minimum number of links traversed to get from node i to node j.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Source: Analysis of Networks
I. E. Antoniou and E. T. Tsompa



Finally, the conclusions remarks of this paper are about the most efficient rates for each method of transportation in terms of volume/area and energy efficiency are given in the table below:

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